The figure of 12.9% is large enough to raise expectations, but not enough for a gelato counter to increase stock or open another sales channel. When assessing gelato ice cream purchasing power in 2026, business owners need to clearly distinguish whole-market data from the actual money collected on each receipt. The gap between these two layers of data is precisely where an expansion decision can be right — or too early.
What does the 12.9% increase actually tell us?
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in Q2/2026 are estimated to have increased by 13.9% compared with the same period last year. Overall, in the first six months of the year, this indicator is estimated to have risen by 12.9%, approaching the full-year target.
This is an indicator of the pace of the domestic market across a broad area. The figures include retail sales of goods and consumer services, not separate revenue statistics for ice cream or gelato. Therefore, 12.9% cannot be taken as the default growth rate for a product category, a locality or a specific shop.
A baseline signal, not a guarantee
The overall increase allows businesses to build scenarios with a more positive outlook. However, conclusions about gelato ice cream purchasing power in 2026 must still be based on data generated at the point of sale: how many additional transactions there are, which products customers choose, how much each receipt is worth and how much of the additional revenue remains after costs.
| Market data tells us | The data does not tell us | How to use it appropriately |
|---|---|---|
| Retail and consumer service activity nationwide continues to grow | The growth rate of gelato revenue specifically | Use it as a baseline signal when building sales scenarios |
| The domestic market continues to play a significant role in the economy | Spending levels in each locality or at each gelato point of sale | Compare it with the shop’s transaction numbers and receipt values |
| Programmes to stimulate demand and develop distribution are being implemented | Which activities generate direct revenue for a specific business | Track opportunities by area, sales channel and target customer group |
Purchasing power only matters when it appears on receipts
A point of sale may attract more customers while the number of orders remains unchanged. The number of portions sold may also increase while profit falls because of promotions, wastage or operating costs. Looking only at gross revenue can easily make a busy sales period look like substantive growth.
Instead of immediately setting a target of 12.9% growth, gelato businesses should use this figure to raise questions that are closely connected to day-to-day operations: are transaction volumes increasing, which product groups are customers moving towards, how is the average receipt value changing and is increased revenue accompanied by a profit margin?
Four metrics to consider together
- Number of transactions: reflects actual purchasing volume, avoiding confusion between visits or views and paid orders.
- Average receipt value: shows whether customers are spending more or simply reallocating their choices within the same budget.
- Product mix: helps identify fast-selling groups, groups generating additional revenue and slow-moving groups.
- Profit margin after promotions: shows the quality of growth rather than simply reflecting the scale of revenue.
If the number of transactions increases but the average receipt value falls, the business should review its product mix and the way promotions are designed. If revenue rises while the profit margin declines, attention should shift to cost of goods, wastage and selling costs. A single metric rarely tells the whole story.
Distribution channels are expanding, but not every channel is suitable
The Ministry of Industry and Trade stated that, in the first half of the year, it implemented programmes to stimulate consumer demand, connect supply and demand, develop distribution systems and promote e-commerce. These activities helped strengthen domestic purchasing power and support businesses in expanding their markets.
For a gelato business, the key point lies in the diversity of customer touchpoints. Selling at the counter makes it easier to observe customers’ choices and introduce the product range. Remote ordering requires the service area, product structure and revenue remaining after costs to be recalculated. Working with cafés or restaurants, meanwhile, requires a separate approach to calculating volumes, selling prices and profit.
Try one channel before expanding across several
Being present in many places does not automatically create efficiency. A more cautious approach is to choose one additional channel, set a trial period and keep other conditions relatively stable. At the end, the business can compare additional revenue with the costs incurred while also tracking the likelihood of customers returning.
If the new channel merely shifts orders from the counter to another location without generating additional revenue or profit, expansion may make operations more complex without yet improving business results.
A stable supply does not mean gelato costs remain unchanged
The Ministry of Industry and Trade’s report assessed that the supply of goods during the first six months of the year was secured, the market was basically stable, and there were no shortages or unusual fluctuations in essential goods. This provides a favourable foundation for business activity in general.
However, this information does not mean that the ingredients, packaging or operating costs of an individual gelato business are stable. Operators still need to monitor actual quotations, usage levels and the cost per portion sold before adjusting prices or launching promotions.
Set revenue alongside cost of goods and waste
Rising revenue is not a positive sign if costs are rising faster. The tracking table should place revenue alongside cost of goods, promotional costs and the amount of stock wasted within the same period. This presentation helps operators see immediately which part of the growth is converted into profit and which part is absorbed by costs.
How does Baby Boss fit into this picture?
This article was published on the Baby Boss channel. Therefore, the brand’s appropriate role is not to turn data from the whole market into a sales promise, but to provide specific points of comparison for people reviewing a gelato product range or business model.
Operators can view Baby Boss’s gelato product range to compare product groups with existing order data. The choice should be based on the sales model, display space, storage capacity and turnover rate at the actual business location, rather than adding products simply because the market as a whole is growing.
If the issue concerns counter layout, processes or model selection, the content on setting up a gelato sales point is a more relevant direction for discussion. Those building an initial management framework can also refer to the F&B business guide to organise revenue, costs and sales channels.
The key point remains unchanged: the product range and business model should only be expanded when data from the sales point shows sufficiently clear demand, healthy enough profit and repeatable results.
Where should the second half of 2026 begin?
The remaining six months do not necessarily have to begin with a major plan. A short test cycle, with data from before and after, is often easier to interpret than changing prices, the product range, presentation and promotional programmes all at once.
A simple measurement cycle for a sales point
- Establish a baseline: record the number of transactions, average transaction value, revenue by product group and current profit margin.
- Choose one hypothesis: test changing how the product range is presented, add a product group or open a sales channel.
- Set a trial period: keep other conditions relatively stable so that the impact of the change can be seen clearly.
- Read both revenue and costs: do not assess the result solely by the number of additional gelato portions sold.
- Expand only when the results are repeated: a short period of strong sales is not enough to confirm a long-term trend.
When the number of transactions, transaction value and profit margin all improve over several tracking periods, the signal to expand becomes more worthy of consideration. Conversely, if the indicators move in different directions, the business should identify the cause before increasing stock or adding channels.
Read the 12,9% signal with measured optimism
Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by 12,9% in the first six months of 2026, indicating that the domestic market is maintaining a noteworthy growth rate. Demand-stimulation activities, supply-and-demand connections and distribution development are also creating more opportunities for businesses to explore.
But for 2026 gelato market demand, data from the overall market is only a starting point. The final decision must still return to the sales counter: number of transactions, transaction value, product mix, cost of goods and profit margin. When these figures tell the same story, the business has a stronger foundation for increasing stock, opening channels or expanding its scale.
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